黄金分析

GOLDLYTICS
     Gold has been trading in a tight range since the start of the week as investors wait for the vast amount of economic data that will be released today. UK Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, US CPI’s, Empire Manufacturing, Continuing Claims, Industrial Production, Bloomberg Consumer Confidence and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook are all out today and should provide some interesting trading.
      If we get directional consensus with these figures we could see healthy rallies in equities markets. I would suggest that the sell off yesterday was a combination of profit taking and positioning covering prior to today’s releases. If we get a positive number across the board then this could indicate that September will see the start of tapering and might see gold sell off as the economy is as seen as being in healthier state or it could see if go up based on the fact that investors still feel that tapering is too early and the economy still requires the FED’s full assistance.
     If we look at a technical perspective we are potentially looking at zig zag trading pattern as we hit resistance at 1345.00 and personally as a gold bear I think we could see 1280.00 support in the next couple of weeks but how the market interprets today’s data will be a deciding factor and it could provide some volatile action.

黄金分析
      因投资者等待今天公布的大量经济数据，黄金自本周开始时就窄幅波动。英国零售销售、美国初请失业金人数、英国消费物价指数、纽约联储制造业指数、持续申请失业救济金人数、工业生产、彭博消费者信心指数以及费城联储商业前景都在今天公布，这可能会让今天的交易很精彩。
      如果这些数据让我们达成共识，我们将看到股市健康的反弹。我认为昨天的抛售是因为投资者获利兑现以及在今天数据公布前补仓。如果全盘上涨，那么这可能表明9月份可能会开始削减量化政策，市场可能抛售黄金，因为经济呈现更健康的状态，或者如果在数据的基础上黄金上涨，投资者可能会觉得削减措施还为时尚早，经济发展仍需要美联储的全力支持。
      从技术角度看，因黄金触及阻力位1345.00，黄金交易可能会曲折波动，我个人认为因为黄金上涨，在接下来的几周里黄金支撑位会定在1280.00，但市场如何定义今天的数据将是一个决定性因素，可能会使市场波动剧烈。