15th August 2013
EUROLYTICS
Eurozone GDP showed that it had expanded by 0.3% in the 3 months to the end of June. The core euro state countries were the many drivers of the GDP figure with Germany and France seeing stronger domestic demand.
So don’t worry everyone, get back to the beach, put on some more sun tan lotion and order another beer( this is what most of ECB are doing at the moment ) there is nothing to concern yourself with , all is good.
I don’t think many investors will get sucked in with this figure for the long term as we are all very aware that the peripheral countries are still at risk. The crisis countries of Greece, Spain, Cyprus and Portugal all still have healthy tourist economies and at this time of year they benefit from external demand but this doesn’t last forever.
There could be a rally to the 1.3400 level based on this figure and that we have tested it twice before in as many months. The flag pattern forming shows that there could be a breakout to the north in the next week and I would think that this would bring profit taking and new speculative shorts to the market. With the RSI in no man’s land and traders away on holiday it might be an idea just to wait for the move and see.
欧元分析
欧元区GDP第二季度扩大0.3%。核心欧元区国家是GDP数据的主要驱动力,德国和法国国内需求看似很强劲。
所以不用担心每个人,他们会回到沙滩,擦上一些防晒乳液并点一些啤酒(这是欧洲央行大部分人正在做的事),没有什么令人担心的事,一切都进行的很好。
我不认为许多投资者会长期困在这个数据里,因为我们都很清楚外围国家仍然面临风险。危机国家如塞浦路斯、西班牙和葡萄牙的旅游经济仍然很健康,在每年的这个时候他们会因外部需求受益,但这不会永远持续。基于这一数据欧元可能会反弹到1.3400水平,如许多个月里那样欧元今天两次测试这一价位。旗帜图案形成表明下周欧元会向上突破,我认为投资者可能会获利了结,新的猜测会影响市场。相对强弱指数持平,交易者因休假离开市场,可能是想等待市场走势。