OFM欧福市场：澳元走势分析

      The Aussie has been showing some strength over the last 3 trading days amidst a plethora of economic data and position changing. This currency is a commodity currency and will rise and fall dependant on demand for raw materials. If economies are doing well, in theory, there will be greater demand for raw commoditiesand countries who are high net producers of these materials will do well and so will their currency. In the case of the Aussie it has been in a downward trend since the start of May as equity markets started to slow down. Demand for industrial commodities worldwide slowed and in particular from China which is the biggest consumer of raw materials in the globe and Australia’s largest net buyer. China has reported the worst export figures since 2009 posting a -3.1% decrease against a survey of +3.7%. The last time China posted results this poor AUDUSD was trading 0.8663.
I have highlighted some key patterns on the daily chart and you will notice that the downtrend is still intact but we have had several 5 day reversalsbefore we start hitting new support levels. This is the 4th day of the 3rd pattern. The technicals combined with the fundamentals do not look encouraging.

       过去三天里，大量经济数据公布，仓位变动，澳元已经有所上涨。澳元是一种大宗商品货币，根据市场对原材料的需求澳元汇率会上涨或下跌。如果经济情况良好，市场对原材料商品的需求会增加，而生产这些材料的有高净投资回报率的生产国会表现良好，同时他们的货币也会上涨。因股市开始下跌，自5月开始来澳元一直下跌。全世界尤其是中国对工业商品的需求降低，中国是全球原材料最大消费国之一，也是澳大利亚的最大净购买者。中国已经报道了自2009年来最糟糕的出口数据，出口下降至-3.1%，此前预期为+3.7%。中国公布的最新数据使澳元兑美元货币对跌至0.8663。
      在日线图上我有强调一些关键形态，你会注意到这一货币对一直维持下降趋势，但是在触及新的支撑水平前澳元有几次5日逆转。这是第三次出现逆转，今天是第四天。技术因素和基础因素都并不乐观。