如何在地缘政治风险下进行交易

How to trade geopolitical risk?

    The last 10 years has seen the world go through some severe problems many posed by international economic, diplomatic and military tensions. We currently have a major issue in Syria where a 2 year long civil war, which has seen 200,000 dead and 2 million refugees, has suddenly drawn the attention of the world super powers as the use of chemical weapons has raised its ugly head.
    过去10年里国际经济、外交和军事紧张局势造成了一些严重的问题。目前主要问题在叙利亚，叙利亚国内战争持续了2年，已经造成20万人死亡，200万人流离失所，因化学武器使用的威胁，这个地区吸引了全球的目光。

    The use of such an abhorrent weapon has caused the global financial markets to be rocked again. The potential for a military response from the US and its friends has driven investors to hedge their portfolios with safe haven investments like treasury bonds, gold and the US Dollar.
    使用这样可恶的武器已造成全球金融市场再次动摇。美国及其盟友可能的军事回应使投资者投资国债、黄金和美元等安全资产对冲投资组合。

    The threat here is not of Syria itself. It’s the threat of contagion that other neighbouring countries will also start to use such methods. Egypt is still suffering and Libya wasn’t that long ago so the region as a whole is a hotbed of risk, and more of a ticking time bomb than many think.
    现在构成威胁的不是叙利亚本身。而是它使用化学武器这件事情造成的威胁，因为邻国也开始使用这种方法。埃及仍面临很多问题，利比亚很久前就这样，因此整个中东地区就是一个风险的温床，存在的“定时炸弹”可能不只是人们认为的这些。

    In such volatile times how do we protect our portfolios from geopolitical risk? Traditional safe havens for investors can be found in purchasing US Treasury Bonds and investing in gold. In terms of speculation and to try and make some money out of these events we have to look at what products will be affected the most and then look to take advantage of them
    在这种动荡不安的时局下，我们应如何应对地缘政治风险，保护我们的投资组合？投资者可以找到的传统安全避风港就是购买美国国债和投资黄金。按照投机的方法，要尝试靠这些挣钱，我们必须了解什么产品会受到最大影响，然后利用它。

   Crude oil is always one of the first to move when there are geopolitical fears and the moves are particularly aggressive when there are issues in the Gulf. If there is a threat to supply this will drive the market up aggressively but many market analysts cite the large price gaps are down to speculators rather than real demand driven issues so the fall back down can be as quick as the rise up.
    当有地缘政治威胁时原油价格总是第一个发生变化的，特别是墨西哥湾出现问题时，原油价格会大幅波动。如果原油供应受到威胁，这会使市场大幅上扬，但是许多市场分析师认为大的价格差距是由于投资者操作而不是真正的市场需求推动，因此原油价格下跌和之前上涨一样迅速。

   Gold is also affected by such events. This precious metal is seen as the hedge against the end of the world. When military air strikes are being considered by super powers like the United States, investors start to panic and speculators look to take advantage. The demand only lasts as long as the risk is alive and as with crude the climb down can be more aggressive than the move up.
    黄金价格也会受到类似事件的影响。贵金属被认为是对冲世界末日的资产。当像美国这样的超级大国考虑空袭时，投资者会开始恐慌，投机者就会利用机会。只要风险消失投机需求就会中断，因此原油下跌可能比上涨更快。

    It is important to remember that geopolitical risk remains an ever present threat as long as hotspots like Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, North Korea, Lebanon and Israel can, at the push of a button, seriously impact western economies. Terrorism and war are ever-present threats to people’s wealth and unexpected events can have very adverse affects on financial markets
    重要的是要记住只要像伊拉克、巴基斯坦、阿富汗、朝鲜、黎巴嫩和以色列这些敏感地区一出现问题，就会严重影响西方经济，地缘政治风险就仍是一个永远存在的威胁。恐怖主义和战争对人类财富始终构成威胁，意想不到的事对金融市场会产生非常不利的作用。