欧元区PMI可能使市场意外

EUROLYTICS
    The FED minutes released yesterday suggested that as long as the economic data continues to show improvement (jobs in particular) tapering can start later this year. This statement is nothing really different from what Bernanke has suggested all along however investors want a time and September has been cited as the first date for a reduction to happen. Portfolios and market positioning are being moved with this date in mind
    Investors are now realising that the tapering monster is going to get us. It isn’t a mythical beast made up to scare market participants; it is real and will be cutting the asset purchase programme in the coming months.
    The EURO fell off from its 1.3400 handle as investors looked to take profits while the market digested the statement. The trend still looks up for this cross in the long term but I am still very bearish overall. Eurozone PMI numbers today could surprise the market so be careful.

欧元分析
    美联储昨天公布的会议纪要显示，只要经济持续好转（特别是就业），今年晚些时候开始就会开始缩减资产购买规模。这种说法和伯南克一直表达的观点没有本质区别，但是市场投资者希望得到一个确切的时间，九月已经被看做是第一个缩减的时间。市场投资和订单暗地里已经将这个时间视为移动的指示。
   投资者已经意识到缩减资产购买规模将走向我们。它不是吓走市场参与者的神秘怪兽。它是真实的，并且未来几个月将会缩减资产购买规模。
   当市场消化该声明时，投资者正获利了结，欧元从1.3400的价位下跌。从长期来看，欧元趋势似乎是上涨的，但是我对整体仍然十分悲观。今天公布的欧元区采购经理人指数可能会是市场震惊，请多加注意。