英镑分析

STERLYTICS
   Sterling has had a quiet time of it since the move on Thursday last week as a healthy Retail Sales number pushed GBPUSD through the 1.5500 level to settle firmly above 1.5600. This cross should hold firm until the FED minutes are released tomorrow where we confirm whether the tapering monster is to be let loose early.
  The sterling rally started with the forward guidance statement from Mark Carney several weeks ago and personally I think it is coming to an end. I for one was slightly confused that sterling rallied on the statement that the BOE which will use monetary policy to reduce unemployment. The rate is 7.8% at the moment and the BOE wants it to be at 7% before they think about rates. So the idea is the BOE pumps more free money into the economy to create more jobs and cut unemployment so they can then raise rates. If there is more cash in supply that means the currency starts to devalue so why the initial rally?
   I have indicated a head and shoulders pattern on the chart below and this is regarded as a reversal pattern in an uptrend. If the pattern is true we could see 1.5450 as first support and perhaps a full retracement to the neckline at 1.52170 but with the market lacking few alternatives the sterling might be the best of bad bunch.

英镑分析
    自上周四好的零售销售数据推动英镑兑美元突破1.5500，收盘价上涨至1.5600来，英镑交易一直比较平静。在明天前这种趋势会继续维持，美联储会议纪要将于明天公布，从这个纪要我们可以明确削减措施是否会尽早开始实施。
    在英国央行行长马克•卡尼几周前做出指导性的声明后，英镑开始上涨，我个人认为这种趋势将结束。在英国央行声明将使用货币政策来减少失业后英镑上涨，我个人对此有点困惑。目前失业率是7.8%，英国央行希望失业率保持在7%再考虑利率的问题。所以英国央行投入更多资金进入经济以创造更多工作岗位，减少失业率，从而可以提高利率。如果供应的资金更多，那这意味着货币开始贬值，那么为什么开始时货币会上涨呢？
    在下面的图表中英镑出现头肩形，这被认为是上涨趋势中的逆转模式。如果这个模式是真的，我们可以看到1.5450是第一支撑位，可能在颈部1.52170位置会出现完全的回弹，但由于市场缺乏替代品，英镑可能是最好的选择。